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The U.S. may maintain sanctions while leveraging Azerbaijan as a strategic location to exploit Tehran’s internal vulnerabilities and regional dependencies.
An article titled "Why the US Should Maintain 'Maximum Pressure' on Iran's Nuclear Program?" written by Ahmad Obali, a national activist from South Azerbaijan and head of "GunazTV", was shared by the influential US publication "The National Interest."
Ahmed Obali wrote in his article that for the millions of ethnic minorities living under a repressive regime in Iran, including his own family, the outcome of the recent nuclear talks between the United States and Iran is not a distant geopolitical issue. It is a matter of the right to live freely, of identity, and of freedom.
"For millions of ethnic minorities living under Iran’s oppressive regime, including my own family, the outcome of the latest U.S.-Iran nuclear talks isn’t distant geopolitics. It’s a question of survival, identity, and freedom.
Although U.S. and Iranian officials agreed to keep talking after their “difficult but useful” meeting in Oman last weekend, Tehran’s stance remains unchanged in substance. The Iranians offered only a temporary adjustment to uranium enrichment levels, not a halt, let alone dismantlement.
This is a calculated concession designed to buy time without altering the regime’s long-term ambitions. Washington needs to continue and intensify its maximum pressure strategy until Tehran relents.
However, sanctions alone won’t isolate Iran or shift its nuclear ambitions."
Ahmad Obali also touched on Azerbaijan's role in the US-Iran talks in his article. Ahmad Obali mentioned that Russia can be used as an example in neutralizing economic pressure.
"Russia has shown how economic pressure can be sidestepped through regional alliances. Moscow leveraged the Eurasian Economic Union, its trade bloc consisting of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, as a strategic backdoor, circumventing sanctions and preserving access to global trade.
Similarly, squeezing Iran will require a sharper focus on its immediate neighbourhood.
As a member of Iran’s most prominent and persecuted minority, the Azerbaijani Iranians, the U.S. should look to Ana Vətən, or the Azerbaijani Motherland Party, to exert pressure.
Situated north of Iran, Azerbaijan holds significant leverage over Tehran due to its position on critical trade routes. More importantly, it could help exploit the regime’s deepest fear, internal dissent.
Any hint of Azerbaijani-Iranian nationalism, separatism, or unification with Azerbaijan provokes profound anxiety in the upper echelons of the Iranian government and is often met with harsh crackdowns on dissent. Numbering in the tens of millions, Azerbaijani Iranians face cultural suppression, identity erasure, and political marginalization.
The language is banned in schools, and community members routinely “disappear.”
Moreover, in the wake of Azerbaijan’s 2020 conflict with Armenia, much to the authorities’ exasperation, a renewed sense of solidarity within the ethnic group took root. Since then, Iranian sabre-rattling against Azerbaijan has intensified."
In his article, Ahmad Obali described how the Iranian regime has pressured him. Ahmad Obali mentioned that he has been repeatedly threatened by armed groups of the Iranian regime. At the same time, Ahmad Obali's family members who still live in Iran are constantly under pressure. His family members are frequently interrogated by the Ministry of Intelligence, subjected to long-term and unjustified arrests, and even tortured.
"The Iranian regime’s thugs have repeatedly threatened me. At the same time, showmily members still inside Iran live under constant pressure: frequent interrogations by the Ministry of Intelligence, prolonged arbitrary detentions, and even episodes of torture.
Though I fled Iran decades ago, exile has not brought safety.
From Chicago, I broadcast back into Iran through GünAz TV, a channel I founded in 2004 to expose the regime’s forced cultural and linguistic assimilation of Azerbaijanis. However, even from across an ocean, I remain a target.
The Iranian regime’s thugs have repeatedly threatened me. At the same time, my family members still inside Iran live under constant pressure: frequent interrogations by the Ministry of Intelligence, prolonged arbitrary detentions, and torture. Tehran’s paranoia over separatism runs deep, and it reveals a potent, often overlooked avenue where Azerbaijan can exert pressure.
Beyond this, Azerbaijan could pull additional levers to benefit the United States. Positioned between Russia and Iran, it sits on a critical trade corridor linking the two pariah states. Any disruption would sever Iran’s vital lifeline to its key ally in Moscow.
Baku could also deepen its security cooperation with Israel. Over the past thirty years, it has cultivated close ties with Israel. Baku supplies the bulk of Israel’s oil; in return, Jerusalem is Azerbaijan’s leading arms provider.
Israel has also quietly used Azerbaijan as a forward base for surveillance and intelligence operations against Iran. In 2018, during the Mossad operation that smuggled Iran’s nuclear archive out of Tehran, reports suggested that Azerbaijan played a logistical or transit role.
As a platform for covert operations, sabotage missions, or if it came to it, targeted airstrikes, few countries offer a better position than Azerbaijan, with its 750-kilometer border with Iran and proximity to military hubs like Tabriz and key nuclear sites across the north and central region.
Azerbaijan will likely be receptive to any overtures."
Ahmad Obali noted that Azerbaijan could become a strategic ally for the United States against Iran:
"Iran has frequently meddled in Azerbaijan’s domestic affairs. It has staged provocative war games along the border, built spy networks, backed a Shia militia aimed at toppling the government, and even attempted to assassinate politicians critical of the Iranian regime. But the gravest insult came with Tehran’s backing of Armenia, Azerbaijan’s arch-nemesis in the recent conflict over the Azerbaijani territory of Karabakh, the single most defining issue in the country since independence from the Soviet Union.
Indeed, the U.S. administration has taken notice. Trump’s special envoy recently visited Azerbaijan, amid growing media speculation that the Abraham Accords could be extended to the country.
Still, Washington must contend with Baku’s commitment to a non-aligned foreign policy.
To sweeten the deal, the United States could help advance the long-stalled peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, a stop-start effort since Baku’s victory in reclaiming its internationally recognised territory. A peace deal appears on or near the table.
Yet key sticking points remain, chief among Armenia’s territorial claims on Azerbaijan in its constitution. Given Armenia’s efforts to pivot away from its traditional protector, Russia, toward the West, and the sizable diaspora community in the U.S., Washington holds significant leverage to bring Yerevan to the table on amenable terms.
The United States could also expand arms sales to Azerbaijan. Yet a symbolic thorn remains: Section 907 of the 1992 Freedom Support Act prohibits direct U.S. government assistance to Azerbaijan.
Passed by Congress at the height of the first Nagorno-Karabakh war, under heavy lobbying from the Armenian diaspora, while their ancestral homeland occupied Azerbaijani territory, successive administrations have routinely waived the provision to enable strategic cooperation. However, President Biden withheld the waiver in 2022, causing frustration within Baku.
Its complete repeal would be a significant gesture of goodwill.
For decades, Azerbaijan’s kin in Iran have endured cultural erasure and persecution. Iran is vulnerable, reeling from the collapse of its Syrian puppet, Bashar al-Assad, and the severe degradation of Hezbollah following its recent conflict with Israel.
A wave of internal dissent is the last thing the regime can afford. Azerbaijan and its other strategic levers offer a way to impose costs, offering a rare opportunity to squeeze Iran at a moment of acute fragility."
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