In its most recent report on Iran, Fitch Solutions predicted that the country will continue to experience high inflation.
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In its most recent report on Iran, Fitch Solutions predicted that the country will continue to experience high inflation.
Despite a slight decrease in inflation in September 2024 (to 31.2%), the average inflation rate will remain high in the coming years: 33.2% in 2024-2025 and 31.7% in 2025-2026.
This is due to the weakening of the national currency and increased import prices. High inflation will limit private consumption, contributing only 2 percentage points to GDP growth in fiscal 2024-2025 and 1.1 percentage points in 2025-26.
According to Fitch Solutions, the intensifying drought also threatens agricultural production, which could have a negative impact on jobs and local food prices.
The oil sector is extremely important to Iran's economy, and its stagnation will have an impact on the state's revenues. This will increase fiscal constraints while slowing wage and social benefit growth.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stressed the importance of attracting more than $100 billion in foreign investment in order to achieve 8% annual growth.
However, given ongoing US sanctions and Iran's blacklisting by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), these plans appear unlikely to succeed.
Increased US sanctions pressure, particularly if Donald Trump wins the November election, will exacerbate the situation, reduce opportunities for foreign investment, and slow economic growth.
GunazTV
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