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Iran can produce one nuclear weapon in 4.5 months

2025.05.07, 14:55
Iran can produce one nuclear weapon in 4.5 months

Even if restrictions from the 2015 nuclear deal are reinstated, Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb within 4.5 months.

Gunaz.tv

This was stated by American nuclear expert David Albright in his report.

“In addition, Iran has much greater experience in deploying centrifuges than it had in 2015. At that time, a reasonable reinstallation rate was about two centrifuge cascades per month per type. Today that rate is faster. In a three-month period, between May 27, 2024, and August 29, 2024, reflecting its greater experience and skill in rapidly deploying cascades.

If there is a return to JCPOA-type limits, and Iran stores all its excess advanced centrifuges, it will have a much shorter breakout timeline.

Given a reinstallation schedule of six cascades per month—specifically two cascades at Fordow and four cascades at Natanz—the resulting breakout timelines are as follows:

• 4.5 months to produce 25 kilograms of WGU, defined as enough for one nuclear weapon

• 7 months to produce enough WGU for two nuclear weapons

• 10 months to enough WGU for almost four nuclear weapons

• 13 months to produce enough WGU for six nuclear weapons

• 15 months to produce enough for almost eight nuclear weapons.

If instead, Iran decided to build back its inventory of 60 percent enriched uranium, which was 275 kilograms in early February 2025, it would have half of it back in 9.5 months, producing it at a rate of 26 kilograms per month. It would reach 275 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium early in month 15, producing it at a rate of 34 kilograms per month.”

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